NBA Picks & Best Bets — Tuesday March 17, 2026

Best pick is Warriors -7.5 at 1.92: Golden State’s +0.8 point differential (115.1 scored, 114.3 conceded) stacks up brutally against Washington’s -10.6 (112.5, 123.2), a gap that screams cover if the Warriors play to their season baseline. Both sides limp in on five straight losses, but the Wizards’ defence bleeding 123.2 points per game is a different tier of problem and it’s hard to see them holding up over four quarters. Expect a fast, messy contest with two top-10 paces (WAS 104.2, GSW 103.1) that should inflate possessions and favour the more stable offence. Golden State are rightful favourites on the moneyline at 1.35, yet the value sits in the line given how often Washington get blown out on these numbers.

Boston’s the best moneyline look at 1.28: they’re 44-23 with a +7.5 point differential (114.5 scored, 107.0 allowed) and sit 2nd in the East, plus they’ve already pinched the season series 1-0. Phoenix come in hot on a 4-1 stretch (WWWWL) but their profile is softer defensively at 110.9 OPPG, which is where Boston can separate if they control tempo. The Suns’ quicker pace (100.9 vs 98.7) nudges the game into a more open rhythm, and the combined scoring rates point to around 222 total points. That makes Over 216.5 appealing, while Suns +8.5 has some merit given the raw differentials suggest closer to a ~6-point gap than a blowout.

Over 222.5 is the standout because the raw scoring base is already 222.6 (Brooklyn 107.2 + Portland 115.4) and the combined pace looks lively at 102.7, with Portland pushing it at 105.1. The Blazers’ key creators should get a clean runway against a Nets defence conceding 115.8 a night, and Brooklyn’s recent blips (17–50 overall despite a brief WW patch) still come with enough shot volume at 100.3 pace to keep the total ticking. Portland are rightly short at 1.22, but the +10.5 on Brooklyn has some merit when the season differentials point closer to a ~6-point gap (Blazers -2.6, Nets -8.6). If Portland’s primary scoring options are efficient early, this sets up as a make-or-miss game that lands nearer the projected ~230 than the low 220s.

First meeting of the season between these two, and with both playing at a near-identical, up-tempo clip (Bulls 104.6 pace, Grizzlies 104.7), the total still looks inflated — they combine for 231.9 PPG but the line’s sitting at 244.5, with a more realistic projection around 238, so Under 244.5 is the standout. Chicago are deserved favourites at 27-40 with Memphis sliding on a five-game skid, yet the underlying numbers are closer than the price suggests: Bulls are -4.1 on point differential (116.1 for, 120.2 against) versus Memphis at -3.3 (115.8, 119.1). That’s why +6.5 on the Grizzlies has appeal, even if the Bulls’ slightly better recent form (WLWLL) gives them the edge to win. With no prior H2H data this season to lean on, the safer read is the maths: high pace, but not enough efficiency to justify 244.5.