NRL Round 4 Predictions & Best Bets

PAR @ PEN MEL @ NQL NEW @ CBY WST @ NZW SYD @ MAN SGI @ GLD DOL @ BRI CRO @ CAN

All Picks at a Glance 6 High · 2 Medium

Round 4 shapes as a favourites’ week, headlined by the strongest play: Penrith Panthers head-to-head at 1.22 against Parramatta, with Melbourne (1.23), Canterbury (1.26) and the Warriors (1.27) also rated as high-confidence wins. The Roosters sit as a shorter top-six lean at 1.47 over Manly, while Brisbane (1.75) are a medium-grade pick in the derby versus the Dolphins. The contrarian angle is on the board at the Titans–Dragons clash with Under 52.5 at 1.90, and the other key swing game is Canberra 1.87 at home to Cronulla.

Best pick: Head to Head — Penrith Panthers @ 1.22 (High). Penrith are 3-0 and 2nd with a +82 points differential (+27.3 per game), while Parramatta sit 9th at 2-1 with a -30 differential (-10.0 per game), a gap that matches the market’s confidence. The forward-pack edge shows up in the yardage: Penrith are rolling for 1673 run metres per game versus Parramatta’s 1417, which is usually where their defensive line speed and repeat sets start. With that platform, the -14.5 line at 1.97 (High) is in play too—Penrith’s scoring margin profile suggests they can clear two converted tries if they win the middle early.

Head to head is the standout: Melbourne at 1.23 looks short but still value given a 67% win rate, 4th on the ladder and a +70 points differential (+23.3 per game) versus North Queensland’s -24 (-8.0 per game) in 12th. The Storm are also rolling through the middle with 1769 run metres per game compared to the Cowboys’ 1565, which should translate into repeat sets and territory. North Queensland’s 11.3 errors per game is a major red flag against a side that punishes cheap possession, so the market has correctly made Melbourne a heavy favourite. If you want a more aggressive angle, the -14.5 line at 1.95 is supported by the PD gap (+23.3 vs -8.0), suggesting Melbourne can cover if they convert pressure into points.

Best pick is Bulldogs head-to-head at 1.26: they sit 3rd (2-0) with a +5 PD and have controlled the middle, rolling for 1849 run metres per game versus Newcastle’s 1589. The defensive angle stacks up too — Canterbury’s early-season resilience has kept their points against in check, which is why they’re unbeaten despite only a modest differential. Newcastle are 8th (2-1, +4) and gritty enough to hang around, so the +13.5 line at 1.95 is worth consideration if the Bulldogs’ defence turns this into a lower-scoring grind rather than a blowout.

Best pick is Head to Head — Warriors @ 1.27: they’re 3-0, top of the ladder and running at +28.0 points differential per game (+84 overall), which screams squad depth and resilience when injuries bite. The Tigers sit 5th with a +24 PD but they’ve only banked two games so far (1-1) and their ball security is a worry at 12.0 errors per game — that’s the sort of stat that gets punished by a settled, in-form pack even if a few names are missing. The line is chunky, so Tigers +13.5 at 1.95 has a case if the Warriors’ outs force combos to shuffle, but the safer read is the Warriors simply finding a way. With 48.5 set high, Under 48.5 at 1.93 fits if injury-driven rotations reduce attacking fluency and the Tigers’ errors kill their own sets.

Sydney Roosters @ Manly Sea Eagles Thu 26 Mar, 20:00

Best pick is Roosters head-to-head at 1.47 — despite sitting 15th (1–2, -52 PD), they’ve shown the higher ceiling and Manly’s 0–2 start (11th, -21 PD) has come with too many cheap points conceded in key moments. Both defences have been leaky on the numbers, but the 48.5 total is still a big ask given how error-driven these sides have been, so Under 48.5 (1.90) rates as the secondary angle with points-against the deciding factor.

St George Illawarra Dragons @ Gold Coast Titans Sun 29 Mar, 18:15

Under 52.5 (1.90) rates the best play: both sides are winless (Titans 0-3, PD -58; Dragons 0-3, PD -37) but the line is priced like a shootout, while our projection sits closer to ~47 points in what shapes as a grind through the middle. The key is metres and post-contact in the forward packs — if the Titans can finally win the yardage battle at home (1.87), they should control field position, but neither attack has shown the consistency to push this total into the 50s.

Dolphins @ Brisbane Broncos Fri 27 Mar, 20:00

Best pick is Brisbane head-to-head at 1.75 (medium): despite sitting 13th at 1–2 with a -30 PD, this shapes as a response spot at home against a Dolphins side ranked 6th (2–1, +22) that’s benefitted from running up points rather than consistently strangling teams. The angle is defence and points against — Brisbane’s early leak has blown out margins, but if they tighten even modestly the game profile points to unders (projected 47 vs 50.5), with the Dolphins less likely to get an open-field shootout at Suncorp.

Cronulla Sharks @ Canberra Raiders Sun 29 Mar, 16:05

Best pick: Raiders head-to-head at 1.87 (medium). Canberra’s 1–2 start and ugly -37 points differential look rough, but they’ve shown enough in patches to trust at home against a Sharks side that’s also 1–2 and hardly dominant despite the much healthier -8 PD. With both teams struggling to put 80-minute performances together, the momentum angle points to a grind — the under 47.5 at 1.92 (projected 44) fits the likely tempo.