NBA Picks & Best Bets — Sunday April 05, 2026

Best pick is Spurs moneyline at 1.78: they’ve won five straight, own a .763 season clip at 58-18, and their +8.4 point differential (119.8 scored, 111.4 conceded) edges Denver’s +4.5 (120.6, 116.1). Denver are also flying with five consecutive wins, but they’ve been far leakier defensively, giving up 116.1 a night, which is a tough profile against a Spurs side that’s been banking stops all year. The season series is 1-1, so expect it to tighten late, yet San Antonio’s cleaner two-way numbers make them the steadier close-out. Lean under 243.5 as well — even with a combined pace around 102.3, the profiles point closer to ~235 than a 240-plus shootout.

Under 248.5 is the play: even with Miami’s 119.7 PPG, the numbers point closer to ~240 given Washington’s 112.6 PPG and a combined pace around 105.3, well short of what a 248.5 line implies. Miami’s defence has been leaky (118.3 OPPG), but the Wizards’ attack is the bigger issue — 17-59 overall, five straight losses, and they’re conceding a brutal 123.8 OPPG, which usually turns games into blowouts rather than track meets. Injury uncertainty matters here: if either side is missing key creators, that tends to sap efficiency and late-game scoring, which is exactly what an under needs. Miami are rightly short on the moneyline and 2-0 head-to-head, but +17.5 with Washington is live given the differential points to something closer to a 13-point gap.

Best pick is Detroit on the moneyline at 1.77: they’re 55-21 with a +7.6 point differential and have won 4 of their last 5, while Philly sits 43-34 and is being outscored on the season (115.9 PPG scored, 116.3 conceded). Even on the road, Detroit’s profile travels — 117.3 a night against a 109.7 defensive mark — and they’ve already taken this series 3-0, so the short -2.5 looks gettable versus a Sixers side at -0.5 differential. The tempo should stay high with both teams around 103 pace (combined 103.4), and that lines up with a slight lean to the over given a 231-point projection against 228.5. Travel-wise, Detroit’s consistency matters more than venue here; Philly needs a defensive lift at home to flip a trend that’s been one-way all season.