NBA Picks & Best Bets — Monday March 23, 2026

Under 242.5 shapes as the best angle: even with a combined pace around 103.3, the numbers point to roughly 236 total points given Denver’s 119.9 PPG against Portland’s 117.5 OPPG and the Blazers’ 115.5 PPG against Denver’s 115.9 OPPG. Denver are rightly favoured on the moneyline (43-28, .605 win rate), but their [WLWLW] form suggests they’ve been a bit stop-start compared to Portland’s [WLWWW] surge. With the season series split 1-1 and the underlying differential closer to a six-point gap, grabbing Portland +8.5 has merit if the tempo doesn’t fully blow out. If it stays in that mid-100s pace band rather than the Blazers’ preferred 105.0, the under holds up.

Over 218.5 looks the best angle: even with Brooklyn’s 106.6 PPG, these defences leak badly (Kings 120.9 OPPG, Nets 115.5 OPPG) and the combined pace sits at a lively 101.4, pointing to a projection around 228 total points. Sacramento at home should control most of it — they score 111.0 a night and Brooklyn roll in on a five-game skid (LLLLL) with travel working against them. Still, the +4.5 on the Nets has some appeal because the raw scoring/allowing profiles don’t scream a blowout; the differential suggests closer to a one-possession margin than the full -5 range. If the Kings’ defence stays as porous as 120.9 conceded per game, Brooklyn won’t need to be good — just competent — to keep this within touch while pushing the total north.

Best pick: Knicks moneyline @ 1.06 — they’re 45-25 with a +6.4 point differential (116.2 scored, 109.8 allowed) and come in riding a five-game win streak, while Washington are 16-53, leaking 123.3 a night and skidding on five straight losses. Even with the Wizards playing faster (104.1 pace to New York’s 100.6), the gap in defensive efficiency is massive and lines up with New York taking the season series 2-1. The +19.5 on Washington has some appeal given the raw differentials point closer to a ~17-point game than 20+, but the Knicks’ form makes the outright result feel close to a lock. With a combined pace around 102 and both teams averaging 228.6 points between them, the over 227.5 also rates well, projecting in the low 230s.

Best pick is Boston on the moneyline at 1.28: they’re 47-23 with a +7.7 point differential (114.7 scored, 107.0 conceded) and have won 4 of their last 5, which stacks up well against Minnesota’s leakier 118.5/115.2 profile. The Wolves do bring the faster tempo (103.5 pace vs 98.7), and that combined 101.1 pace points to more possessions than Boston usually prefers, keeping the +9.5 start live even with Minnesota down 0-1 in the season series. Totals-wise, the numbers lean over 220.5 — these offences combine for 233.2 PPG on the season, and even a modest efficiency night projects closer to the ~228 range than a grind. Boston’s ability to turn stops into clean looks is the separator, but Minnesota’s pace should stop it from turning into a walkover.