Home advantage is one of the oldest assumptions in sport. The home team wins more often — everyone knows that. But how much more often? Is it changing? And more importantly for punters: does the market already price it in, or is there an edge hiding in the data? The answer is more nuanced than … Read more
Corner kicks are one of the most underanalysed areas in football betting. The match result market gets the attention, the goals market gets the models, but the corner market — which exists at every major bookmaker — is often priced with less sophistication and less data than almost any other football market. That inefficiency is … Read more
Between September and May, the teams competing across multiple competitions — league, Champions League, FA Cup, League Cup — face stretches where they play every three days for weeks at a time. The physical toll is real, the squad rotation is predictable, and the betting market doesn’t always adjust quickly enough. Fixture congestion is one … Read more