AFL Round 3 Predictions & Best Bets

ADE @ GEE NOR @ ESS RIC @ FRE WCE @ POR GRE @ COL BRI @ ST MEL @ CAR

All Picks at a Glance 3 High · 4 Medium

Round 3 shapes as a scoring-driven slate, highlighted by our strongest play: Adelaide–Geelong Over 146.5 at 1.87, with conditions and ball movement pointing to a total that’s been set a touch low. The contrarian angle sits with North Melbourne -13.5 at 1.90, backing the Roos to turn recent territory and clearance wins into a margin rather than another honourable loss. We’re also leaning into points in Richmond–Fremantle Over 144.5 at 1.95, while the head-to-head card favours the steadier profiles in Port, Collingwood and Brisbane, with Melbourne at 1.97 the tightest of the outright calls.

Over 146.5 is the best angle here: both sides are tracking at roughly 90 points per game, which puts the projection around 190 total points and well clear of the 146.5 line. Adelaide’s percentage (104.6%, 8th) suggests they’re generating enough scoring to keep their end ticking over, while Geelong (79.6%, 14th) have been leaky enough early to allow a shootout if the Crows bring their momentum. Geelong are still rightful favourites at Kardinia Park (1.12), but the Cats’ form line doesn’t scream a blowout, so Adelaide +22.5 is playable with the market sitting closer to -24.5. Expect scoring patches rather than a grind, with both teams’ recent output pointing to a higher-tempo game than the totals imply.

Best pick: North Melbourne -13.5 — the numbers say the line is miles off, with a projected margin around 77 points versus a handicap of just 13.5. Essendon sit 18th at 0-2 with a 55.0% profile, while North are 6th at 1-1 and a dominant 116.3%, a gap that typically translates to repeat entries and scoreboard pressure at Docklands. The head-to-head angle supports the favourite: when North get on top in this matchup they tend to turn it into a territory game, and Essendon’s current form line suggests they’re vulnerable to another one-sided result. With a projected total of 204 against 193.5, there’s also a lean to the over if North’s scoring power holds and Essendon can contribute enough to keep it ticking along.

Over 144.5 is the best look here: the projection sits around 183 total points off Fremantle’s 109 ppg and Richmond’s 66 ppg, and the Dockers’ 121.1% suggests they’re generating enough scoring shots to carry the total even if the Tigers lag. Fremantle are rightly $1.06 favourites given they’re 5th versus Richmond 17th, with a +19 average score differential compared to Richmond’s season percentage of just 64.5%. The injury angle matters less for the Dockers because their depth has held up through two rounds, while Richmond’s early-season availability squeeze is showing up on the scoreboard and in their inability to keep games within touch. At Perth Stadium, that gap in squad health and rotation quality typically compounds late, which is exactly how overs get home even in one-sided scripts.

West Coast Eagles @ Port Adelaide Power Sun 29 Mar, 12:30

Best Pick: Head to Head — Port Adelaide Power @ 1.30 (Medium). Port (7th, 1–1, 109.3%) have the stronger early-season profile than West Coast (12th, 1–1, 81.3%) and should control the game at Adelaide Oval on current momentum and scoring efficiency. The Eagles’ percentage gap flags a side still leaking too much, and if Port’s ball movement clicks this shapes as a 190+ total — we’ve got it projected around 198, giving a slight lean to Over 191.5 (Medium).

Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Collingwood Magpies Fri 27 Mar, 19:40

Best Pick: Head to Head — Collingwood Magpies @ 1.46 (Medium). Collingwood are the clear favourites with the stronger early-season profile (9th, 1–1, 98.7%) against a Giants side sitting 13th at 1–2 with a 81.1% percentage. At Docklands, Collingwood’s familiarity with the roofed conditions and tighter dimensions should sharpen their ball movement and pressure game, while GWS need a significant lift in scoring efficiency to offset the gap shown on the ladder and percentage.

Brisbane Lions @ St Kilda Saints Sat 28 Mar, 12:35

Best Pick: Head to Head — Brisbane Lions @ 1.62 (Medium). Despite Brisbane sitting 0–2 (77.2%) versus St Kilda’s 1–2 (92.3%), the head-to-head points to Brisbane as the steadier matchup and they shape as clear favourites at Docklands. Scoring profiles suggest a tighter game than the market total implies: the lean is Under 187.5 (projected 182), with both sides not exactly bursting with percentage through two rounds.

Melbourne Demons @ Carlton Blues Sun 29 Mar, 15:15

Best Pick: Head to Head — Melbourne Demons @ 1.97 (Medium). Even at the MCG, Melbourne look the steadier side early doors: they’re 11th with the better percentage (84.4%) versus Carlton’s 15th at 70.9%, and that underlying scoring profile makes them the cleaner H2H play despite the Blues’ home-ground comfort. Totals lean Over 182.5 (projected ~190) if Carlton can lift their output at the ‘G, but Melbourne’s ability to control territory keeps the main edge with the Demons.