Premier League Predictions & Best Bets — March 21–23, 2026

BHA vs LIV EVE vs CHE LEE vs BRE TOT vs NFO FUL vs BUR NEW vs SUN AVL vs WHU BOU vs MUN

All Picks at a Glance 2 High · 6 Medium

Match	Pick	Odds	Market	Conf
BHA vs LIV	Over 2.5	1.65	Goals	★ Best
EVE vs CHE	Over 2.5	1.80	Goals	High
LEE vs BRE	Over 2.5	1.91	Goals	Medium
TOT vs NFO	Under 2.5	1.91	Goals	Medium
FUL vs BUR	Under 2.5	1.93	Goals	Medium
NEW vs SUN	Under 2.5	2.02	Goals	Medium
AVL vs WHU	Aston Villa	2.04	Match Winner	Medium
BOU vs MUN	Manchester United	2.20	Match Winner	Medium

Goals headline the slate, with the strongest play Brighton vs Liverpool Over 2.5 at 1.65 leading a round where our totals leans land at three Overs and four Unders. The model profile is conservative overall — six home wins, two away wins and seven draws backed — pointing to tight margins across most fixtures. The contrarian angles are the Under 2.5 calls at Newcastle vs Sunderland (2.02) and Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest (1.91), both priced as coin-flips despite the model expecting lower-scoring game states. Away-win value is limited but live, with Manchester United to beat Bournemouth at 2.20 one of the few road results the numbers can justify.

Goals should flow here: Over 2.5 at 1.65 rates as the best play given Brighton’s matches average 2.5 total goals (39 for, 36 against across 30) and Liverpool’s run even hotter at 3.0 per game (49 for, 40 against). Liverpool sit 5th on 49 points — seven spots and nine points clear — and arrive in better nick (DLWWW) with three wins from their last five, which keeps the 2.32 away win firmly in the frame despite missing Joseph Gomez and Freddie Woodman. Brighton’s 10-10-10 record screams volatility, and with Liverpool conceding 40 already, even a mid-table Seagulls side can get on the board. The head-to-head leans Liverpool (5 wins from the last 10 with 2 draws), but the cleaner read is another open, scoreboard-friendly game rather than a cagey one.

Goals look the best angle here: Everton matches are averaging 2.3 total goals and Chelsea’s are at 2.9, and with both defences sitting on 35 conceded, Over 2.5 at 1.80 rates highly. The ladder gap is slimmer than the market suggests — 8th vs 6th and only five points (43 to 48) — and Everton at 3.70 has genuine value, especially with Chelsea missing Nicolas Jackson, Oluwatosin Adarabioyo and Mykhailo Mudryk. Momentum is patchy on both sides (Everton LWWLL, Chelsea LWLDD), which keeps the draw live at 3.70, backed by three stalemates in the last 10 head-to-heads. Even so, Chelsea’s 53 goals for versus Everton’s 34 hints at a game state that can swing quickly and stay open.

Leeds United (32pts) vs Brentford (45pts) Sun 22 Mar, 07:00

Tottenham Hotspur (30pts) vs Nottingham Forest (29pts) Mon 23 Mar, 01:15

Fulham (41pts) vs Burnley (20pts) Sun 22 Mar, 02:00

Under 2.5 goals at 1.93 looks the best angle: Fulham (40 for, 43 against) and Burnley (32 for, 58 against) combine for 2.9 goals per game, but the hosts’ attacking upside is dulled with Antonee Robinson and Ryan Sessegnon both missing, which can sap their width and chance volume. Fulham should still control it — 11th on 41 points versus Burnley 19th on 20, plus a 6–2 edge in the last 10 head-to-heads — yet Burnley’s tendency to grind (8 draws) keeps a scrappy, low-scoring script in play.

Newcastle United (42pts) vs Sunderland (40pts) Sun 22 Mar, 23:00

Aston Villa (51pts) vs West Ham United (29pts) Mon 23 Mar, 01:15

Aston Villa at 2.04 looks the play: they’re 4th on 51 points with 15 wins, while West Ham are 18th on 29 and leaking 55 goals, even if Villa have a few key absences. The head-to-head is tighter than the ladder suggests (Villa 4 wins, West Ham 3, with 3 draws in the last 10), so don’t be shocked if it’s a grind rather than a blowout. With both sides combining for about 2.8 goals per game and Villa’s recent form patchy (LLLDW), Under 2.5 at 2.15 has a real case.

2.15

Bournemouth (41pts) vs Manchester United (54pts) Sat 21 Mar, 07:00

Best pick: Manchester United to win @ 2.20 (Medium) — they’re third with 54 points and the league’s stronger defensive profile (41 conceded) than Bournemouth’s 46, which matters against a home side that’s drawn four straight in a [DDDDW] run. United’s price reflects a few absences (Onana, Mazraoui) and a slightly draw-prone matchup — Bournemouth sit on 14 draws and the H2H reads 3-3-4 — but with 54 goals scored to 44, they’ve got more ways to break a game open if it stays tight.