Premier League Predictions & Best Bets — March 21–23, 2026

BHA vs LIV EVE vs CHE LEE vs BRE TOT vs NFO FUL vs BUR NEW vs SUN AVL vs WHU BOU vs MUN

All Picks at a Glance 2 High · 6 Medium

Match	Pick	Odds	Market	Conf
BHA vs LIV	Over 2.5	1.65	Goals	★ Best
EVE vs CHE	Over 2.5	1.80	Goals	High
LEE vs BRE	Over 2.5	1.91	Goals	Medium
TOT vs NFO	Under 2.5	1.91	Goals	Medium
FUL vs BUR	Under 2.5	1.93	Goals	Medium
NEW vs SUN	Under 2.5	2.02	Goals	Medium
AVL vs WHU	Aston Villa	2.04	Match Winner	Medium
BOU vs MUN	Manchester United	2.20	Match Winner	Medium

Goals headline the slate, with the strongest play Brighton vs Liverpool Over 2.5 at 1.65 (High) setting the tempo and Everton vs Chelsea and Leeds vs Brentford also leaning to the over. The model leans heavily to home sides (6 home wins, 2 away wins) but it’s draw-heavy overall with 7 stalemates backed, and the totals split points to 3 overs versus 4 unders. The contrarian angles sit in the unders — Spurs vs Forest, Fulham vs Burnley and Newcastle vs Sunderland all project tighter than market expectation — while the two away win leans (Man United at Bournemouth, plus the other road spot) are the round’s risk-on positions.

Goals should be on the agenda: Over 2.5 looks strong at 1.65 given Brighton’s matches are averaging 2.5 total goals (39 for, 36 against across 30) and Liverpool’s are even looser at 3.0 (49 for, 40 against). Liverpool carry the momentum with a [DLWWW] run and sit fifth on 49 points — seven places and nine points clear of a Brighton side that’s been stop-start at [WLWWL] despite an even 10-10-10 record. The visitors also shade the recent head-to-head (5 wins from the last 10, with 2 draws), so the 2.34 for a Liverpool win has merit, even allowing for absences like Joe Gomez. Brighton’s ability to trade punches at home keeps the draw (3.80) in the conversation, but the numbers keep pulling this toward another open, chance-heavy game.

Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 looks the top play given how open these sides have been: Everton matches are averaging 2.3 total goals (34 for, 35 against in 30), while Chelsea are at 2.9 (53 for, 35 against). The ladder gap is slim (8th v 6th, just five points), and with Chelsea missing Nicolas Jackson, Oluwatosin Adarabioyo and Mykhailo Mudryk, Everton at 3.70 carries genuine value if the home split holds up. Chelsea’s attack has still been the difference overall — 53 goals versus Everton’s 34 — but both defences have conceded 35, so it doesn’t take much for this to turn into a shootout. Don’t ignore the stalemate either: 3 draws in the last 10 head-to-heads and both sides coming in patchy (Everton LWWLL, Chelsea LWLDD) keeps 3.80 on the draw in the conversation.

Leeds United (32pts) vs Brentford (45pts) Sun 22 Mar, 07:00

Tottenham Hotspur (30pts) vs Nottingham Forest (29pts) Mon 23 Mar, 01:15

Fulham (41pts) vs Burnley (20pts) Sun 22 Mar, 02:00

Best angle here is the unders: Under 2.5 at 1.93 looks solid given Fulham (40 for, 43 against) and Burnley (32 for, 58 against) combine for just 2.9 goals per game on average, and neither arrives in free-scoring form (Fulham [DLWWL], Burnley [DLLDW]). Fulham should still control it as the 11th-placed side on 41 points versus Burnley’s 19th on 20, but with Robinson and Sessegnon missing and Burnley often grinding out low-quality chances, it profiles more like a 1–0 or 1–1 than a shootout.

Newcastle United (42pts) vs Sunderland (40pts) Sun 22 Mar, 23:00

Best pick is Under 2.5 goals at 2.02: Newcastle (43 for, 43 against) and Sunderland (30 for, 35 against) combine for a dead-on 2.5 goals per game, and with both sides chasing a top-half finish (9th on 42 vs 13th on 40) the game shape should skew cagey rather than chaotic. Newcastle are rightful favourites at 1.69 given the 7 wins in the last 10 H2Hs and three wins from their past five (WWLLW), but with Willock and Isak out and Sunderland’s more conservative profile, it looks more like a grind than a shootout.

Aston Villa (51pts) vs West Ham United (29pts) Mon 23 Mar, 01:15

Aston Villa to win at 2.04 is the play — they’re 4th on 51 points and still a clear class above an 18th-placed West Ham (29 points), even with a few outs. The Villans’ form line reads [LLLDW] so the momentum is only just turning, but West Ham’s [DWLDD] hasn’t translated into wins and their 55 goals conceded screams fragility away from home. With Villa games averaging 2.6 total goals and the combined clip at 2.8, the under 2.5 at 2.15 also stacks up if this turns into a nervy, control-first grind rather than a shootout.

2.15

Bournemouth (41pts) vs Manchester United (54pts) Sat 21 Mar, 07:00