Premier League Predictions & Best Bets — April 11–14, 2026

CHE vs MCI LIV vs FUL ARS vs BOU MUN vs LEE SUN vs TOT CRY vs NEW BUR vs BHA NFO vs AVL BRE vs EVE WHU vs WOL

All Picks at a Glance 4 High · 6 Medium

Match	Pick	Odds	Market	Conf
CHE vs MCI	Over 2.5	1.56	Goals	★ Best
LIV vs FUL	Over 2.5	1.57	Goals	High
ARS vs BOU	Over 2.5	1.66	Goals	High
MUN vs LEE	Over 2.5	1.72	Goals	High
SUN vs TOT	Over 2.5	1.90	Goals	Medium
CRY vs NEW	Under 2.5	2.10	Goals	Medium
BUR vs BHA	Under 2.5	2.12	Goals	Medium
NFO vs AVL	Aston Villa	2.76	Match Winner	Medium
BRE vs EVE	Everton	3.50	Match Winner	Medium
WHU vs WOL	Wolverhampton Wanderers	4.60	Match Winner	Medium

This weekend shapes as a goals-heavy slate, with the strongest play Chelsea vs Manchester City Over 2.5 at 1.56 leading a card that leans 7 overs and only 3 unders. The model is tilted away from home comfort (3 home wins vs 7 away wins) and is also draw-friendly, backing 9 stalemates across the 10 matches. Contrarian angles sit in the unders — Crystal Palace vs Newcastle Under 2.5 at 2.10 and Burnley vs Brighton Under 2.5 at 2.12 — plus a couple of live away shots in the match-winner market like Everton at 3.50 and Wolves at 4.60. Expect volatility: plenty of matches project open, but the away/draw bias suggests several tight scorelines could still land.

Goals — Over 2.5 looks the safest angle at 1.56: Chelsea matches are running at 2.94 total goals per game (53 for, 38 against in 31), and City are almost identical at 2.93 (60 for, 28 against in 30). City to win at 2.22 still rates despite missing Phil Foden and Joshua Wilson-Esbrand — they’re 2nd on 61 points with a +32 goal difference and a [DDWWW] run, while Chelsea’s [LLWLD] wobble has them 6th with 48 and a +15. The head-to-head leans heavily City (7 wins, 3 draws from the last 10), and even with Foden out their attack depth should test a Chelsea defence conceding 1.23 a game. If you’re hunting a price, the draw at 4.00 has some cover given those three stalemates in the last 10 meetings, but the numbers keep dragging you back to goals.

Goals — Over 2.5 is the standout at 1.57: Liverpool matches are averaging 3.0 total goals (50 scored, 42 conceded in 31), and Fulham aren’t far behind at 2.8 (43 for, 44 against). Liverpool sit 5th on 49 points (14-7-10) and are rightly favoured at 1.65, but they’re not at full strength with Joseph Gomez and Freddie Woodman unavailable, which matters for a side already conceding 1.35 per game. Fulham are 9th on 44 (13-5-13) and arrive in decent nick (WDLWW), so they look capable of landing a punch even if Liverpool’s recent form is patchy (LDLWW). The draw at 4.60 isn’t silly either given four stalemates in the last 10 head-to-heads (4H-4D-2A), but the numbers still point to goals first.

Goals — Over 2.5 is the standout at 1.66: Arsenal matches are running at 2.7 total goals per game (61 for, 22 against across 31), while Bournemouth are even looser at 3.0 (46 for, 48 against). Arsenal’s momentum is obvious with a [WWWWD] streak and 70 points from a 21-7-3 record, plus they’ve had the edge in this fixture (6 wins from the last 10 H2H). Bournemouth’s five straight draws [DDDDD] screams resilience, but 48 conceded suggests they’re living on the edge rather than controlling games. Arsenal at 1.46 still rates as the logical result play despite missing Leandro Trossard and Riccardo Calafiori, with the table gap (1st vs 13th) and recent form doing most of the heavy lifting.

Goals — Over 2.5 is the standout at 1.72: United matches are running at 3.2 total goals per game (56 for, 43 against across 31), while Leeds sit at 2.7 (37 for, 48 against). United’s momentum is trending up with three wins in their last five (DWLWW) and they’re 12 places clear of Leeds (3rd on 55 points vs 15th on 33), even with Onana and Mazraoui missing. Leeds arrive winless in five (DDLLD) and leaking 48 goals, a profile that tends to turn games into end-to-end scraps rather than cagey stalemates. The draw is still the little danger at 4.40 given both sides’ high draw rates (United 32%, Leeds 39%) and four stalemates in the last 10 head-to-heads, but United remain the rightful favourites at 1.62 off a 6-4-0 H2H run.

Sunderland (43pts) vs Tottenham Hotspur (30pts) Sun 12 Apr, 23:00

Goals should be the headline: Over 2.5 at 1.90 looks well priced given Spurs’ games are rarely quiet (40 scored, 50 conceded) and their form line screams chaos (LDLLL), while Sunderland sit mid-table with a modest but steady 32-for/36-against. The combined average sits at 2.5 goals per match, and with Tottenham still rated favourites at 2.76 despite missing Solanke and Bissouma, this shapes as another open one where both sides can contribute. History leans Spurs (7 wins, 3 draws in the last 10 H2H), but the safer read is to back the scoreboard rather than the result.

Crystal Palace (39pts) vs Newcastle United (42pts) Sun 12 Apr, 23:00

Under 2.5 goals at 2.10 is the value play: Palace (33 for, 35 against) and Newcastle (44 for, 45 against) sit around a combined 2.6 goals per game, and neither side is carrying a convincing attacking trend in patchy form (Palace DWLWL, Newcastle LWWLL). The market leans Newcastle at 2.52, but with Willock and Isak missing and only three points separating 12th and 14th, this profiles tighter than the price suggests. Add five draws in the last 10 H2H meetings and you’ve got a match that screams low-scoring grind rather than a shootout.

Burnley (20pts) vs Brighton and Hove Albion (43pts) Sun 12 Apr, 00:00

Under 2.5 goals at 2.12 looks the play: Brighton’s defence has held up (37 conceded in 31), and Burnley’s attack hasn’t been consistent enough to punish teams despite 33 scored, with their [LDLLD] run hinting at tight, nervy games. Brighton should still edge it at 1.77 given they’re 10th with 43 points and four wins from their last five, but the H2H trend (five draws in the last 10) plus Burnley’s leaky 61 conceded points to a controlled away performance rather than a blowout.

Nottingham Forest (32pts) vs Aston Villa (54pts) Sun 12 Apr, 23:00

1.98

Brentford (46pts) vs Everton (46pts) Sun 12 Apr, 00:00

2.04

West Ham United (29pts) vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (17pts) Sat 11 Apr, 05:00

1.98