Best Odds
Stat-bomb: Levante games are running at 2.8 total goals per match (1.1 scored, 1.7 conceded) — and they’re still 19th.
Best value: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.88. Not a max bet. Just the cleanest angle on a messy fixture.
The Value
Neither side screams “control” right now. Levante are WLLLL and leaking chances at both ends. Girona aren’t much tighter (1.6 conceded), and their away approach tends to invite pressure then counter. That mix usually spits out goals, not chess.
The raw scoring numbers look modest (Levante 1.1, Girona 1.0), but the concession rates are doing the heavy lifting. Add it up and you’ve got a combined 2.7 goals per game profile. At 1.88, Overs is priced like a coinflip-plus, and I’ve got it slightly better than that.
If you’re hunting La Liga predictions, this is the kind of spot where market fear (two low scorers) can leave a little value on totals.
Market Read
Girona 2.58 shows a chunky model “edge” but it’s tagged low confidence for a reason. Girona’s form (LDWDL) isn’t miles better than Levante’s, and the H2H is basically noise: last seven has Levante 3 wins, Girona 2, with two draws.
The draw at 3.45 has some logic if you think it turns cagey, but I’m not paying for that story when each side is conceding north of 1.5 a game.
Quick Take
Injuries aren’t nothing: Levante lose depth (Pastor Vacas, Carlos Alvarez, Olasagasti), Girona miss van de Beek and Abel Ruiz. Still, this shapes like a scrappy game with moments — not a clean 0-0.
Play: Over 2.5 @ 1.88. Small to medium stake. If the price crashes, I’m happy to pass. For more numbers, hit the La Liga Data Hub. Also read CA Osasuna vs Mallorca Preview & Prediction.
Team News & Injuries
- Alfonso Pastor Vacas (injured)
- Carlos Alvarez (Injured Doubtful)
- Jon Ander Olasagasti (injured)
- Kervin Arriaga (injured)
- Alan Matturro (Injured Doubtful)
- Donny van de Beek (Injury)
- Abel Ruiz (injured)
- Miguel Ortega Gutierrez (Ankle surgery)
- Paulo Gazzaniga (Suspension)
- Y. Herrera (Hamstring muscle injury)
Form Guide
Head to Head (Last 7)
View the latest La Liga table, team stats, results, and betting trends in the La Liga Data Hub →
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