Best Odds
Levante’s midfield depth takes a hit with Carlos Alvarez and Jon Ander Olasagasti both out. For a side already leaking 1.8 goals a game, that’s not ideal when you’re chasing points.
Best value: Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.28. Not a max play. Just the cleanest angle on offer.
The Value
The market’s pricing this like a low-event scrap, but Levante games haven’t been that. They score 1.0 GPG and concede 1.8 GPG. That profile drags matches into chaos, especially late when they’re behind and push numbers.
Alavés aren’t exactly a goal machine (0.9 GPG), but they’re the steadier side and should get chances in transition. Levante’s defensive record says you don’t need to be flashy to nick one. If Alavés score first, this can open up fast.
The combined average sits at 2.5 goals per game. At 2.28, you’re getting paid for something that’s basically right on the number, with Levante’s concede-rate doing the heavy lifting. That’s enough for a value nibble in La Liga betting.
Numbers That Matter
Levante are 19th with LLLLD form. That’s desperation territory. Desperation usually means risk: fullbacks higher, midfield stretched, and more transition shots at both ends.
Alavés sit 15th (DLWWL) and concede only 1.2 GPG, so they’re capable of slowing it down. But if they’re missing Maraš and Diarra, that’s not nothing for structure and ball-winning. One sloppy spell and you’re halfway to 2-1.
Quick Take
Match winner? Levante at 2.74 has “edge” in the model but low confidence. Draw 3.20 has some H2H support (3 draws in last 10), yet it’s still a coin-flip read. I’d rather play goals and avoid picking a side.
For more context, check the La Liga Data Hub. Also read: Getafe vs Sevilla Preview & Prediction and Celta Vigo vs Mallorca Preview & Prediction.
Team News & Injuries
- Alfonso Pastor Vacas (injured)
- Carlos Alvarez (Injured Doubtful)
- Jon Ander Olasagasti (injured)
- Kervin Arriaga (injured)
- Alan Matturro (Injured Doubtful)
- Hugo Novoa (Ankle problems)
- N. Maraš (Muscle bruise)
- M. Diarra (Foot Injury)
- F. Garces (Suspended)
- J. Pacheco (Shoulder Injury)
Form Guide
Head to Head (Last 10)
View the latest La Liga table, team stats, results, and betting trends in the La Liga Data Hub →
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