Hawkesbury Best Bets
17 MAR 2026| Race | Dist | Top Pick | Rating | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 1100m | 6. FROSTISEN | 59 | MED |
| R2 | 1500m | 5. TENDI | 46 | LOW |
| R3 | 1300m | 1. ABOVE THE LAW | 65 | HIGH |
| R4 | 1500m | 7. OLE MISS | 63 | MED |
| R5 | 2000m | 7. SAVVY SPY (NZ) | 58 | MED |
| R6 | 1800m | 7. IRON LEGEND | 55 | MED |
| R7 | 1300m | 3. IL PASSERO | 67 | HIGH |
Pace looks the defining edge at Hawkesbury on Tuesday, with a stack of races lacking a natural leader and a couple where the front end could control it by default. On a Good 4 with the rail +2m from the 800m to the 400m and true the rest, you want horses that can hold a spot without spending petrol, or those that can launch off a genuine tempo when it appears. The tricky part is the card flips between “run along” maidens and mid-race dawdles in the staying legs, so map-reading matters more than ever.
Race 1 Tips — HRC MOTEL PROVINCIAL MAIDEN HANDICAP (1100m)
6 FROSTISEN
In a shallow maiden, the one with the least exposed form has the most upside, and 6. FROSTISEN is the only runner here who’s shown something in one start that suggests there’s proper improvement coming. He went to Wyong on 21 February in a $60k super maiden over this 1100m and did plenty right: pinged the lids, was first at the 800m and kept finding well enough to hold second, beaten 2.25 lengths behind He’s Cool. That’s a better race than most of these have even seen. Gate matters here. Barrier two gives Jay Ford the option to hold a spot without burning, and with no clear leader but Avionte and a couple of other on-pacers wanting similar real estate, Frostisen should get the right kind of pressure race where you don’t need to be a superstar to win. What I liked most is he didn’t fold. He was there to be beaten late and he still boxed on with a slick 33.32 for his last 600. Second-up, same trip, Good track, and he doesn’t need luck—just a clean getaway and a steady rhythm. Hard to beat.
Dangers & Value
7. MISS JOHANSKI is the blowout runner if they genuinely overdo it up front; her Hawkesbury second over 1000m last prep came off a sharp 32.66 last 600 and that’s the right shape if they’re lining up on the bend. The gate is ugly though and she’s going to need cover. 8. SILENT UPRISING draws the paint and can land closer than most, but that Port Macquarie fourth was only a $27k maiden and this is a noticeable lift in quality. 5. AVIONTE is in the speed mix and can stick on for a place, but from barrier ten he risks doing it the hard way if he has to cross and control. For mine, the race runs through Frostisen’s map.
Race 2 Tips — PIONEER FACILITIES MAINTENANCE 4YO&UP MAIDEN PLATE (1500m)
5 TENDI
This is the race on the card where value punters should be sharpening their pencils, because the map screams “messy,” the tempo looks like it could be soft, and the market will likely gravitate to the usual suspects. 5. TENDI isn’t sexy on paper—11 starts and still a maiden—but he’s the type who can improve sharply when he finds the right rhythm at a suitable trip. This 1500m is that. His Beaumont second on 15 January over 1150m came from a long way back (eighth at the 800) and he was still the one making ground late, only to go down 2.5 lengths. Since then he’s been asked to chase speed in midweek maidens at Newcastle and then got bogged down at Goulburn on a Soft 7 where the whole race shape worked against him. Forget Goulburn. Seriously. The 37.39 last 600 tells you they crawled and sprinted and he wasn’t in the right spot to take advantage. From barrier five Reece Jones can have him midfield with cover, and in a race where So Superior might find himself in front by default, Tendi gets the chance to peel at the right time rather than spotting them a big start. He’s not a moral. But at each-way odds he’s the bet.
Dangers & Value
6. THE IRON STAR is the obvious danger because he’s been knocking on the door at Hawkesbury and Kembla Grange over this kind of trip, including that unlucky-narrow second at Hawkesbury in September over 1500m when beaten 0.23. The knock is he hasn’t shown much on good ground. 4. STOCK ROAD brings strong country placing form, running seconds at Bathurst and Queanbeyan, but he tends to get a long way back and barrier eight won’t help if they stack them up. 3. SO SUPERIOR is the map horse—if Winona Costin controls it, the rest might be chasing too late—while 7. UNBRIDLED STORM needs the opposite: genuine pressure, which he may not get.
Race 3 Tips — PETER SMITH MEMORIAL 3YO MAIDEN HANDICAP (1300m)
1 ABOVE THE LAW
Settling position will sort out half the field before the turn, and that’s exactly why I want the Waterhouse & Bott colt who naturally puts himself into a race. 1. ABOVE THE LAW has had four goes for three seconds and every one of them has come with him travelling like the winner at some stage. He was runner-up here at Hawkesbury on 11 September over this 1300m on a Soft 7, sitting second at the 800 and sticking to the task to be beaten under a length by Sheeza Diva. That’s the profile you want in these provincial three-year-old handicaps—tactical speed first, stamina second. Yes, barrier eight isn’t ideal. It’s not a disaster either. With Dwight and a couple of others wanting to push on from wider alleys, Hyeronimus can roll across, find a spot outside the lead or one-one, and make this a pressure race rather than a sprint-home. His Kembla Grange fourth behind Cobra Club over 1600m last prep reads like the run of a horse who just got to the end of his prep and wanted a spell, not a horse short of ability. Fresh enough, right trip, and in a race where plenty will be shuffled back early, he’s the one who can take luck out of it. This is the setup. Win.
Dangers & Value
2. DWIGHT is the danger because that Wyong second on 26 February was tough—three-wide early from barrier eleven, still there at the 800, and only nailed late by a whisker. If he crosses cleanly from gate nine he can make life awkward. 8. IN A TIZZY draws barrier one and gets the soft run, but her Rosehill fifth behind Bubbles Up was only fair and she’ll need to show more fight late. 9. OURAGAN is the one charging home off speed—he was tenth at the 800 at Newcastle and hit the line for third beaten 0.77—but barrier twelve means he’s giving them a start again. Above The Law gets first crack.
Race 4 Tips — PIONEER SERVICES BENCHMARK 64 HANDICAP (1500m)
7 OLE MISS
Nobody wants to lead, which turns this into a lottery from the 400, so I want the mare who’s arriving with momentum and a turn of foot—because when they all hesitate, the one with confidence usually wins. 7. OLE MISS comes off a Tamworth demolition job on 2 March over 1400m where she was only midfield at the 800 and still put them away by 4.55 lengths. It wasn’t a fast-run race—36.38 for her last 600 tells you it was more of a sit-and-sprint—but the key is she was the only horse in that race who could quicken when asked. This is a similar prizemoney level stepping into a Hawkesbury BM64, so it’s not the “win a maiden, go to town” trap. It’s a logical progression. The query is the map: she’s a backmarker and barrier seven means Heavelon Van Der Hoven has to make a decision early—go back and risk traffic, or slide across and be closer than usual. I’m backing the rider to be positive. There’s no bulldozer leader here, just Malabar and Commanding Artist and Sir Loyne all happy to sit and eyeball. If they dawdle, Ole Miss can be the one to launch first. Two runs back at Tamworth she was beaten a lip in a $50k super maiden after settling near last. She’s thriving. Each-way all day.
Dangers & Value
3. SIR LOYNE is the speed influence who can pinch it if Keagan Latham gets control; he won his Wyong maiden by panels leading and then chased hard at Kembla Grange behind Hopper. 2. COMMANDING ARTIST draws barrier one and that’s gold in a leaderless race—he was brave at Kembla Grange on 17 February beaten 0.8 after sitting right on the speed. 5. CHILLY CHARLIE is the grinder who keeps running and maps for a lovely trail from gate four, while 1. MALABAR has the weight and the soft draw but needs to show he can finish it off when the pressure goes on.
Race 5 Tips — CELEBRATING DARRIN VOSS BENCHMARK 64 HANDICAP (2000m)
7 SAVVY SPY (NZ)
This is about who can absorb pressure for a long time and still kick, and in a 2000m where the tempo may be pedestrian early, I’m leaning hard into the horse who can put himself on-speed and control when others are waiting for something to happen. 7. SAVVY SPY (NZ) looks the natural “ends up in front by default” runner from barrier five, and that’s a big edge at Hawkesbury when the staying races turn into mid-race breathers. His last start at Canterbury over 1900m on a Soft 6 reads worse than it was: he rolled to the top (first at the 800) and got run down late to finish sixth, beaten 4.09. That’s the risk when you lead in a stronger $60k and the swoopers are sharper. Back to this $42k BM64, the pressure should be softer and he gets his chance to dictate. Two starts back he chased home Throttle Response at Canterbury over 1550m on a Good 4, sitting second at the 800 and sticking on for second beaten 1.4. That effort says he’ll run the trip if he’s allowed to relax. He’s fit. He’s tough. And with Hyeronimus steering, I expect him to take this race by the throat before the 600. If you’re playing your hawkesbury form guide straight, this is a pace-and-pattern bet. He can take running down.
Dangers & Value
1. LUGARNO is flying and the Newcastle win over 2300m on 6 March was all heart—sixth at the 800 then grinding over the top—so if they actually roll along, he’s the one who keeps coming. The 61kg makes him earn it. 3. TWISTED LOVE (NZ) has a Newcastle BM64 win over 1850m that fits perfectly, but that Warwick Farm BM72 failure over 2140m was a complete non-event and you need to decide if you forgive it. 6. PROCEAN (NZ) gets Kerrin McEvoy but looks hostage to tempo as a deep closer, and 9. FEARN TRICK is capable on her day yet comes off a Rosehill beating where she folded when pressure went on.
Race 6 Tips — HAPPY BIRTHDAY ALI ARNDT MAIDEN PLATE (1800m)
7 IRON LEGEND
When they walk, it becomes about who kicks first — not who runs fastest, and that’s the exact scenario where class relief can be worth lengths. 7. IRON LEGEND drops brutally from the $100k Warwick Farm super maiden on 4 March into a plain $42k, and that’s the kind of shift that turns “honest” into “hard to hold out.” He was ninth at the 800 there and boxed on for fourth, beaten 4.02, in a race that clearly didn’t suit a horse needing time to build. Go back one more and you see the real appeal: at Hawkesbury on 19 February in a $60k super maiden over 1500m, he was sixth at the 800 and ran right through the line for third behind Kokatahi (NZ), beaten 1.36, clocking 33.94 for his last 600. That is a serious closing split in this grade. The obvious headache is barrier twelve. Gate matters. Sam Clipperton will have to snag and find cover, and in a moderate-tempo 1800m you can be left with too much to do. But this field is full of similar plodders; very few have raced in anything like the strength he’s been contesting. If the race becomes a sit-and-sprint, I want the Waller horse with the better engine. Each-way, because the map can beat him. But if he gets the right cart into it, he wins.
Dangers & Value
10. SARAPO (GB) has the biggest “class drop” story of the lot—he’s been to Rosehill for the Gloaming and then raced in $100k maidens—and barrier one means he finally gets the smother instead of searching. The knock is he’s still a backmarker and can be left flat-footed. 8. PEPE is another Waller closer dropping in grade, but his Warwick Farm eighth was plain and he’ll need to show more intent. 14. SO D’ORO is the map runner with Zac Lloyd and that Wyong second beaten 0.18 says he’s ready to win one; if they crawl, he’s a big threat. 2. BELGRANO also fits if the race turns into a stamina test from the 600.
Race 7 Tips — MICWAY MIDWAY BENCHMARK 68 HANDICAP (1300m)
3 IL PASSERO
In big fields with mixed pace, where you land matters more than what you are, and 3. IL PASSERO draws exactly where you want to be to beat a Hawkesbury Midway—barrier one, no excuses, and the chance to let the race unfold in front of him. He comes off a Newcastle win on 14 February over 1250m in a conditional BM68 where he was fifth at the 800, peeled at the right time and absolutely put them to the sword, winning by 3.42 lengths. That wasn’t a lucky swoop. It was a gap job. The strength of that win is it came after two Warwick Farm runs in stronger city-grade benchmarks where he was getting back and chasing sharper horses. Behind Ellipsis over 1200m he was eighth at the 800 and still made ground late, and then over 1400m behind Duvana he was forced wide from gate seven and never got the cheap run he gets here. This is where your hawkesbury racing tips can be simple: the backmarkers drawn wide are at the mercy of a slow midsection, and this race profiles as one where Duke Of Camden might lead by default and try to pinch it. IL Passero doesn’t need the lead, he just needs the lane. Mitchell Bell can park him behind the speed, wait, and go bang. He’s the meeting’s best bet for a reason. He maps perfectly. Hard to beat.
Dangers & Value
1. VETWELVE is the class dropper—out of Midway BM72s and even the Four Pillars—so this is a big relief on paper, but barrier nine means he either goes back and needs luck or works early and risks being trapped wide. 4. C’MON MATE is always dangerous at 1300m and his Kembla Grange win two starts back was strong, though he’s another who gets back and can be left with too much to do if they crawl. 6. LONE ARTIST is the consistent on-pacer/midfielder who keeps turning up and his Kembla Grange fourth beaten 1.9 is right in the mix. 2. DUKE OF CAMDEN is the likely leader, but from barrier ten he might have to spend fuel to cross, and that can bring him undone late.
Best Bets
The best bets for Hawkesbury start with the obvious anchor: IL PASSERO in Race 7, drawn to get the run of the race and coming off a dominant Newcastle BM68 win. The best value runner is TENDI in Race 2 each-way, a race where the market can misread the tempo and overreact to recent “plain” runs that were all about race shape rather than ability. If you’re building a hawkesbury form guide for exotics, keep leaning to the horses who can hold a spot when the leaders are thin on the ground.
Odds, scratchings and conditions can change — check closer to jump.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is Race 1 at Hawkesbury on Tuesday, 17 March 2026?
Race 1 at Hawkesbury on Tuesday, 17 March 2026 is scheduled for 1:50PM. It’s an 1100m provincial maiden handicap and it kicks off a card where tempo varies race to race, so it’s worth locking in the early maps before you bet through the afternoon.
What does a Good 4 track mean for betting at Hawkesbury?
A Good 4 at Hawkesbury is typically a fair surface where horses can accelerate properly and you’re not forced into only wet-track profiles. It often puts the emphasis back on settling position and speed control, especially with the rail only mildly out, rather than pure stamina like you’d need on a Heavy track.
What is the best bet at Hawkesbury on Tuesday, 17 March 2026?
The best bet is IL PASSERO in Race 7. He’s coming off a commanding BM68 win at Newcastle and now draws barrier one, which is a huge map advantage in a race that may not be run at a breakneck tempo. He gets the chance to land closer and strike without needing a miracle.
Does the rail position favour leaders at Hawkesbury with +2m from the 800m to the 400m and true the rest?
With the rail only +2m for that short section and true elsewhere, it’s usually not an extreme bias setter by itself. The bigger influence is whether races have a genuine leader or not—when they stack up and sprint, inside draws that can hold a spot often outperform, because wide runners are forced to cover extra ground for no reward.
How should I approach betting on this 7-race Hawkesbury card?
Treat it as a map-first meeting: several races lack a natural leader, so look for runners that can settle in the first half without working. Anchor your stronger opinions where a horse has both class edge and a clean run profile, and spread wider in the leaderless, sit-and-sprint races where the winner can come from a smart mid-race move.