Best Odds
Team News (and why it matters)
Fiorentina losing Moise Keane is the big one. They’re already only at 1.2 goals per game, and without a proper focal point you’re basically betting on scraps: a set piece, a mistake, or a random screamer. Mandragora out doesn’t help either — less control, less clean chance creation. Pisa aren’t exactly flying, but they won’t mind this turning into a messy, low-event grind.
Pisa’s outs (Meister, Lusuardi, Coppola) aren’t great, but their bigger issue is structural: 0.8 goals per game. Even when they compete, they don’t finish.
The Value
Best value: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.05. Not a lock. Just the best number on the board. The combined average sits around 2.6 goals a game, but that’s dragged up by each side conceding (Fiorentina 1.6, Pisa 1.7). The attack side is the problem: Pisa can’t score, and Fiorentina’s missing Keane.
This is 18th vs 19th. That usually means fear. Fewer risks. More sideways passing. If Fiorentina score first, they’ve got every reason to shut up shop. If Pisa score first, they’ll park the bus and pray. Either way, game state points to unders.
Market Read
The draw at 4.10 makes sense too — draw rates are chunky (Fiorentina 36%, Pisa 48%) and they’re only a spot apart. Pisa at 5.80 is the spicy roughie with a big model edge, but I’m not racing in when their attack is this blunt. For me the best bets angle is goals, not a side.
If you want more numbers, hit the Serie A Data Hub. Also read: AC Milan vs Parma Preview & Prediction.
Team News & Injuries
- Rolando Mandragora (Unknown Injury)
- Moise Keane (Red card Suspended)
- T. Lamptey (Jumpers knee)
- A. Barák (Wound)
- C. Kouamé (Jumpers knee)
- Henrik Meister (Unknown Injury)
- Mateus Lusuardi (injured)
- F. Coppola (Ankle surgery)
- İ. Vural (Inflammation)
- D. Denoon (Injury)
Form Guide
Head to Head (Last 1)
View the latest Serie A table, team stats, results, and betting trends in the Serie A Data Hub →
18+ only. Gamble responsibly. If you need help, call 1800 858 858.
{“@context”: “https://schema.org”, “@type”: “FAQPage”, “mainEntity”: [{“@type”: “Question”, “name”: “What is the best value bet for Fiorentina vs Pisa?”, “acceptedAnswer”: {“@type”: “Answer”, “text”: “Under 2.5 goals at 2.05 is the best value line, driven by Pisau2019s low scoring rate and Fiorentina missing Moise Keane.”}}, {“@type”: “Question”, “name”: “Is Fiorentina vs Pisa likely to be a low-scoring Serie A match?”, “acceptedAnswer”: {“@type”: “Answer”, “text”: “It leans that way: Pisa average 0.8 goals scored per game, and Fiorentinau2019s attack takes a hit with Keane out, which suits an unders game script.”}}]}