Best Odds
Match Winner
11 places
4/5 wins
2/5 wins
Draw
Over/Under 2.5
1.61
2.28
Leeds are leaking 1.7 goals a game and they’re missing Ampadu plus two centre-backs. That’s asking for trouble at Stamford Bridge.
The Value
Best angle is Chelsea @ 1.61. The model’s got it as medium confidence but a chunky 37.9% edge, and the H2H backs it (Chelsea 6 wins from the last 9). Chelsea are 5th, rolling along (WWWWL), and they’re scoring 1.8 a game while keeping it fairly tidy at the back (1.1 conceded).
Leeds sit 16th, form’s patchy (WLDWL), and the defensive outs are brutal. If Gnonto and Dan James are also managed, their out-ball looks thin too.
Numbers That Matter
Overs are live: Over 2.5 @ 1.61 with Chelsea games averaging 2.9 total goals and Leeds 3.1. But Chelsea missing Jackson and Mudryk takes a bit of sting out of the “goals in this one” case.
Lean Chelsea ML first. Overs is a secondary play only. For more context, hit the Premier League Data Hub and your Premier League predictions sheet.
Team News & Injuries
- Nicolas Jackson (Suspension)
- Oluwatosin Adarabioyo (Injured Doubtful)
- M. Mudryk (Suspension)
- M. Mudryk (Suspension)
- M. Mudryk (Suspension)
- Jaka Bijol (Red card Suspended)
- Sebastiaan Bornauw (Injury)
- Ethan Ampadu (Injury)
- Lucas Perri (Thigh Injury)
- W. Gnonto (Calf Injury)
Form Guide
Head to Head (Last 9)
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