Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli Preview & Prediction

Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen
6th • 36pts

Kickoff
Sun 15 Feb, 01:30

FC St. Pauli

FC St. Pauli
17th • 17pts

⚡ Odds & analysis updated 15 Feb 2026, 01:06 AEST

Best Odds

Bayer Leverkusen
1.56

Draw
4.60

FC St. Pauli
7.00

Medium Confidence
Match Winner
Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen are the clear favorites — 11 places higher than FC St. Pauli (though missing Exequiel Palacios, Martin Terrier)

1.56
35.9% edge

Position Gap
11 places
Bayer Leverkusen Form
2/5 wins
FC St. Pauli Form
1/5 wins

Not Favoured
Draw
Draw @ 4.60
similar recent form

4.60

High Confidence
Over/Under 2.5
Pick: Over 2.5
Both sides involved in open games — Bayer Leverkusen avg 3.3 goals/game, FC St. Pauli avg 2.6

1.80

Over 2.5
1.80
Under 2.5
2.00

Market Read

Leverkusen $1.56 is short, but the price still leaves room. The model edge is big (35.9%), and the draw at $4.60 looks like false hope. Overs 2.5 at $1.80 makes sense off the game totals, but the cleaner value sits with the home win.

Why Leverkusen Wins This

The ladder gap is real: 6th on 36 points versus 17th on 17. Leverkusen score 1.9 a game; St. Pauli concede 1.7. That’s a nice matchup at the right end. The H2H is one-way too: last six is 5 wins and a draw for Leverkusen.

Injuries matter, though. Palacios, Terrier and Boniface out takes some bite off Leverkusen, so I’m not chasing a big margin. St. Pauli missing Irvine is a worry for their midfield control and ball-winning, plus they’ve got extra outs and a couple of doubts.

Where’s the Bet?

Best play: Leverkusen to win @ 1.56. That’s the best bets anchor. Small lean only: Over 2.5 @ 1.80, because St. Pauli average just 1.0 scored and can kill your overs ticket by going quiet.

More numbers: Bundesliga Data Hub.

Team News & Injuries

Bayer Leverkusen

  • Exequiel Palacios (Muscle Injury)
  • Martin Terrier (Achilles tendon rupture)
  • Victor Boniface (Injury)
  • Loic Bade (Muscle Injury)
  • Malik Tillman (Calf Injury)
FC St. Pauli

  • Ricky-Jade Jones (Shoulder injury)
  • Abdoulie Ceesay (Foot injury)
  • J. Irvine (Foot injury)
  • D. Nemeth (Groin Injury)
  • K. Mets (Jumpers knee)

Form Guide

Bayer Leverkusen

DWWLL

FC St. Pauli

WLDDL

Head to Head (Last 6)

5
Bayer Leverkusen

1
Draws

0
FC St. Pauli

View the latest Bundesliga table, team stats, results, and betting trends in the
Bundesliga Data Hub →

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