Best Odds
Match Winner
11 places
2/5 wins
1/5 wins
Draw
Over/Under 2.5
1.80
2.00
Market Read
Leverkusen $1.56 is short, but the price still leaves room. The model edge is big (35.9%), and the draw at $4.60 looks like false hope. Overs 2.5 at $1.80 makes sense off the game totals, but the cleaner value sits with the home win.
Why Leverkusen Wins This
The ladder gap is real: 6th on 36 points versus 17th on 17. Leverkusen score 1.9 a game; St. Pauli concede 1.7. That’s a nice matchup at the right end. The H2H is one-way too: last six is 5 wins and a draw for Leverkusen.
Injuries matter, though. Palacios, Terrier and Boniface out takes some bite off Leverkusen, so I’m not chasing a big margin. St. Pauli missing Irvine is a worry for their midfield control and ball-winning, plus they’ve got extra outs and a couple of doubts.
Where’s the Bet?
Best play: Leverkusen to win @ 1.56. That’s the best bets anchor. Small lean only: Over 2.5 @ 1.80, because St. Pauli average just 1.0 scored and can kill your overs ticket by going quiet.
More numbers: Bundesliga Data Hub.
Team News & Injuries
- Exequiel Palacios (Muscle Injury)
- Martin Terrier (Achilles tendon rupture)
- Victor Boniface (Injury)
- Loic Bade (Muscle Injury)
- Malik Tillman (Calf Injury)
- Ricky-Jade Jones (Shoulder injury)
- Abdoulie Ceesay (Foot injury)
- J. Irvine (Foot injury)
- D. Nemeth (Groin Injury)
- K. Mets (Jumpers knee)
Form Guide
Head to Head (Last 6)
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