A-League Predictions & Best Bets — March 20–22, 2026

AKL vs MAC PER vs MCY SYD vs NEW BRI vs WEL MVC vs CCM WSW vs ADL

All Picks at a Glance 1 High · 4 Medium

Match	Pick	Odds	Market	Conf
AKL vs MAC	Over 2.5	1.60	Goals	★ Best
PER vs MCY	Under 2.5	1.93	Goals	Medium
SYD vs NEW	Sydney FC	2.18	Match Winner	Medium
BRI vs WEL	Wellington Phoenix FC	3.70	Match Winner	Medium
MVC vs CCM	Central Coast Mariners	8.20	Match Winner	Medium
WSW vs ADL	Western Sydney Wanderers	1.89	Match Winner	Low

Round this weekend looks tightly priced with the model leaning to stalemates (five draws backed), split evenly on match winners (three home, three away) and a slight tilt to lower scoring (two unders vs one over). The strongest play is Over 2.5 goals at 1.60 in Auckland FC vs Macarthur FC, where the numbers point to a more open game than the rest of the slate. The contrarian angles are Perth Glory vs Melbourne City Under 2.5 at 1.93 and a pair of away-win swings: Wellington Phoenix at 3.70 in Brisbane and Central Coast Mariners at a big 8.20 away to Melbourne Victory. Sydney FC (2.18) and Western Sydney (1.89) are the home sides the model is most willing to side with, but the draw bias keeps confidence tempered across the board.

Goals — Over 2.5 is the standout: Auckland matches are averaging 2.7 total goals per game (36 for, 21 against across 21), while Macarthur are even looser at 2.9 (26 for, 35 against). The table gap is stark too — Auckland sit 2nd on 39 points (11-6-4, form WDWWD) and should be pushing hard, while Macarthur are 8th on 25 with a five-game skid of LLLLD and a leaky 35 conceded. Auckland have also had the edge in this fixture (2 wins and a draw in the last three H2H), and even with Gallegos and Pijnaker missing they profile as the likely winner at home. With Macarthur’s defence wobbling and Auckland’s attack humming, the game script still points to goals.

Perth Glory (22pts) vs Melbourne City (25pts) Sun 22 Mar, 19:00

Sydney FC (33pts) vs Newcastle Jets FC (40pts) Sun 22 Mar, 15:00

Sydney FC to win at 2.18 is the play: they’re 3rd on 33 points with a tighter defensive profile (21 conceded) than the league-leading Jets, who’ve shipped 32 despite scoring freely (44). Expect chances at both ends — Newcastle are averaging just over two goals a game, while Sydney’s 28-for suggests they can punish a back line that can be opened up, even with Hollman and Lacey missing. The H2H leans Sky Blues (5 wins from the last 10), and with both sides carrying near-identical recent form, Sydney’s extra control without the ball looks the separator.

Brisbane Roar (24pts) vs Wellington Phoenix FC (24pts) Sat 21 Mar, 15:00

Best pick: Wellington Phoenix to win at 3.70 looks overs given they’ve taken 6 of the last 10 against Brisbane (with three draws) and the ladder gap is basically nothing — both sit on 24 points. Brisbane’s thin going forward with Amanatidis, Halloran and Ludwik all out, and with both sides trending cautiously (Roar [DDLDL], Phoenix [WDLLD]) the under 2.5 at 1.96 also appeals even if their combined season average sits at 2.8 goals a game. If you’re shopping for a safer angle, the 3.70 draw price isn’t crazy either, but the value sits with the visitors.

1.96

Melbourne Victory (32pts) vs Central Coast Mariners (27pts) Sat 21 Mar, 17:10

Central Coast at 8.20 is the standout play: they’re only two spots behind Victory (6th vs 4th) and come in hotter on form [DWDWW], while Melbourne are shorthanded with Hamill, Rawlins and D’Arrigo all out. The ladder gap (32 vs 27 points) flatters Victory a touch given the near-identical goal profiles (34–27 vs 28–28) and a tight H2H that’s produced four draws in the last 10. If you want a saver, the draw at 5.20 fits the numbers, but the price says the away win is being under-rated.

Low

Western Sydney are 12th (21pts) but still rate at home against an Adelaide side sitting 5th (32pts) whose three straight draws have only just turned into back-to-back wins, and the recent H2H is basically even (5–4 in Adelaide’s favour across the last 10). The price leans Wanderers (1.89) despite key outs in J. Holmes and B. Borrello, so their thinner attacking depth has to hold up against a Reds team that’s scoring freely (35 GF) but still giving up chances (30 GA).

Western Sydney Wanderers 1.89