9 Ligue 1 Tips & Predictions This Weekend

ANG vs HAV STR vs REN LOR vs MAR RC vs TOU LIL vs NIC PSG vs LYO MET vs PAR NAN vs BRE29 ASM vs AUX

All Picks at a Glance 5 High · 4 Medium

Match	Pick	Odds	Market	Conf
ANG vs HAV	Under 2.5	1.58	Goals	★ Best
STR vs REN	Over 2.5	1.65	Goals	High
LOR vs MAR	Over 2.5	1.72	Goals	High
RC vs TOU	Over 2.5	1.74	Goals	High
LIL vs NIC	Over 2.5	1.83	Goals	High
PSG vs LYO	Paris Saint Germain	1.32	Match Winner	Medium
MET vs PAR	Over 2.5	1.95	Goals	Medium
NAN vs BRE29	Over 2.5	2.00	Goals	Medium
ASM vs AUX	Under 2.5	2.10	Goals	Medium

It’s a goals-leaning Ligue 1 slate, with our model shading to 6 home wins, 3 away wins and 4 draws, and backing 6 overs against 2 unders. The strongest play is Angers vs Le Havre Under 2.5 at 1.58, a clear signal for a low-event match in a round otherwise stacked with Over 2.5 angles. Contrarian unders also show up at AS Monaco vs Auxerre Under 2.5 at 2.10, while the headline result call is PSG to beat Lyon at 1.32. Expect volatility in the mid-table shootout spots — Strasbourg vs Rennes, Lorient vs Marseille and Lens vs Toulouse all rate as high-confidence overs.

Under 2.5 goals shapes as the best angle at 1.58: Angers’ games are averaging 2.2 total goals (25 for, 39 against across 29), and Le Havre sit at 2.1 (24 for, 37 against), with neither side showing much attacking momentum in recent form (Angers [LDLLW], Le Havre [DDLDL]). The ladder gap is razor-thin — 13th vs 14th and just four points (33 vs 29) — and the last-10 H2H (4-2-4) screams coin-flip rather than a shootout. Le Havre shade the win pick at 2.84, but the absences of Loïc Nego and Thomas Delaine take some punch out of their width and delivery, which only strengthens the case for a tight, low-scoring grind. With Le Havre drawing 11 of 29 and Angers owning just nine wins, the 3.10 draw price also fits the profile if you’re looking beyond the totals.

Goals — Over 2.5 at 1.65 (High) leads the way: Strasbourg matches are averaging 2.9 total goals (46 for, 34 against across 28), while Rennes are even looser at 3.1 (49 for, 41 against across 29). Strasbourg’s attack has them 8th on 43 points with 12 wins, and Rennes sit 6th on 50 with 14 wins, but both defences leak enough to keep scorelines moving even when results tighten (Strasbourg’s [WWDDD], Rennes’ [WWDLW]). The head-to-head leans Rennes (6 wins from the last 10), yet Strasbourg are priced as favourites at 2.60 despite missing Omobamidele and Amougou — another reason to prioritise goals over the 1X2. With only two ladder spots separating them and a draw at 3.75, the cleaner angle is backing a game that gets past 2.5 rather than picking a side.

Goals — Over 2.5 at 1.72 is the standout: Lorient matches are tracking 2.8 total goals per game (38 for, 44 against across 29) and Marseille are even wilder at 3.3 (58 for, 38 against). Lorient’s defence concedes 1.52 per game and Marseille score 2.00 per game, a clean recipe for a 2–1 or 3–1 type scoreline even if the hosts chip in. Marseille are still the likelier winner at 1.80 given they’re 4th on 52 points and have dominated the last 10 H2H (9 wins, 1 draw), but with key absences the safer angle is backing goals rather than a perfect away performance. Recent form supports the volatility too: Lorient’s last five (LDLWD) and Marseille’s (WLLWW) both scream momentum swings rather than control.

Goals look the best angle here: Over 2.5 is strongly in play with Lens matches averaging 2.9 total goals (54 for, 27 against across 28) and Toulouse sitting at 2.7 (39 for, 39 against across 29). Lens at home should still control the scoreboard — they’re 2nd on 59 points with a +27 goal difference, while Toulouse are 10th on 37 and perfectly even for/against — and the H2H leans their way (7 wins from the last 10). Even with Gradit and Chávez Quinter missing, Lens’ profile is built on pressure and chance volume, and Toulouse’s away outlook tends to swing with their form (LLWWL) rather than shut games down. If Toulouse contribute even once, the numbers say this can clear 2.5 quickly.

Lille (53pts) vs Nice (28pts) Sun 19 Apr, 05:05

Goals — Over 2.5 looks the play at 1.83 given the scoring profile: Lille matches are averaging 2.9 total goals and Nice’s are even wilder at 3.1, with the visitors leaking 56 in 29 (nearly two per game). Lille should control it sitting 3rd with 53 points and a [WWWWD] run, but with Meunier and Zhegrova out and Nice capable of contributing (34 scored), the cleaner angle is goals rather than relying solely on the 1.61 home win.

Paris Saint Germain (63pts) vs Lyon (51pts) Mon 20 Apr, 04:45

Best pick: Paris Saint Germain to win @ 1.32 (Medium) — they’re first with 63 points and a 20-3-4 record, plus they’ve dominated this fixture (8 wins from the last 10) and arrive in better nick than Lyon’s WDLDD. At home, PSG’s scoring power (61 for, 23 against overall) should tell against a Lyon side that’s been leaky on the road at times and hasn’t had the same week-to-week edge. Even with Mukiele and Mayulu unavailable, PSG’s home split and recent form (WWLWW) make them the percentage play.

Metz (15pts) vs Paris FC (35pts) Mon 20 Apr, 01:15

Nantes (19pts) vs Brest (36pts) Mon 20 Apr, 01:15

Goals — Over 2.5 is the best look at 2.00: these sides combine for 2.7 goals per game and neither defends well (Nantes 45 conceded, Brest 43), so one moment of chaos can turn into a shootout. Nantes are 17th on 19 points and sliding (DDLLL), so the motivation is obvious at home even with Lahdo and Centonze out, while Brest sit 11th on 36 and have steadied after a rough patch (LLLWW). The head-to-head leans Brest (5 wins in the last 10) with three draws, but the numbers point more to goals than a clean result.

AS Monaco (49pts) vs Auxerre (24pts) Sun 19 Apr, 23:00

Under 2.5 goals at 2.10 looks the value play: Monaco’s home edge should tell, but their missing Magassa and Embolo plus Auxerre’s away-first mentality (23 scored all season, 16th on 24 points) points to a tighter script than the table suggests. Monaco are still the rightful winner pick at 1.62 given they’re 7th with 49 points, have won four of their last five, and have dominated this H2H (9 wins, 1 draw in the last 10), yet with the combined goals rate sitting at 2.6 per game it shapes as a controlled home win rather than a shootout.